Core Announcement
President Donald Trump told reporters at the NATO summit in Ankara that the cease‑fire between the United States and Iran was "over" and warned that the United States would "probably hit [Iran] hard again tonight" after recent retaliatory strikes. He added that the U.S. might re‑impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports and that a general license allowing the production and sale of Iranian oil had been revoked. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, accused the United States of breaching the interim peace agreement and said Tehran would shut the strategic Strait of Hormuz if any further U.S. attacks occur, refusing any new transit routes other than those it establishes.
Market Reaction
At 15:55 ET (19:55 GMT) Brent crude futures for September delivery were up 5.9% to $78.55 a barrel, after briefly topping $80 – the first time since 22 June. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for August delivery climbed 5.1% to $74.05 a barrel. Earlier in the session oil prices had surged above 8% as traders reacted to the heightened geopolitical risk.
Military Actions
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that on Tuesday it struck more than 80 Iranian targets, including air‑defence systems, command‑and‑control networks, coastal radar sites, anti‑ship missile capabilities, and over 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) small boats in and near the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes were a response to Iran‑linked attacks on three commercial vessels – M/T Al Rekayyat, M/T Wedyan and M/T Cyprus Prosperity – identified by Qatar and Saudi Arabia for the first two ships. Iran’s state media later said that 85 Iranian military installations in Kuwait and Bahrain were hit and that an American drone was shot down.
Inventory and Export Data
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said commercial crude oil inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by 3 million barrels in the week ending 3 July, marking the first build after ten consecutive weeks of draws and contrary to expectations of a 2.4 million‑barrel draw. Total commercial inventories, including the SPR, fell by 3.2 million barrels to 730.8 million barrels – the lowest level since May 1984. Separately, the EIA reported that U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products reached a record 13.6 million barrels per day in April, a 15% increase over March.
Market Commentary
Robert Edwards, chief investment officer at Edwards Asset Management, noted that the escalation prompted the typical market playbook: rising oil prices, higher bond yields and falling equity prices, though the moves were less pronounced than at the start of the conflict.