Ceasefire between US and Iran announced April 8 prompted sharp reassessment of oil market risk premiums.
OptionMetrics data show risk‑neutral density tightened, peak probability up ~40%, left‑tail near zero, right‑tail plateau persists.
Implied probability of Brent crude rising >5% above forward price remains 15‑20% as of April 8, indicating lingering escalation risk.
Garrett DeSimone, Head Quant at OptionMetrics, says markets still price a modest chance of conflict escalation despite ceasefire.