Market Overview

On Thursday, oil prices retreated after a sharp advance the previous session. At 14:57 ET (18:57 GMT), Brent crude futures for September fell 2.7% to $75.88 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures dropped 2.6% to $71.64 a barrel. The day before, Brent had risen more than 5% to its highest level since June 19 and WTI had gained over 4% to a peak not seen since June 22.

Geopolitical Developments

Escalating U.S.–Iran tensions resurfaced after the biggest flare‑up since the interim peace deal was signed last month. In retaliation for attacks on three commercial oil tankers, the United States launched strikes on approximately 170 Iranian targets, including air‑defence systems, missile and drone storage sites, and more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) small boats. Iranian forces responded by striking U.S. bases in the region, according to state media.

President Donald Trump, speaking from a NATO summit in Türkiye and later on Air Force One, said the cease‑fire was “over” and described the U.S. response as “retribution,” adding, “I say we hit them 20‑to‑1 — every time they hit us, we’re going to hit them 20… When they hit, we hit back much harder.” When asked if the two nations would return to full‑scale conflict, Trump replied, “I don’t know.” He also noted that Iran had called “so badly” to make a deal, but expressed doubt about Iran’s willingness to honor any agreement.

Financial analyst Danni Hewson of AJ Bell observed that markets were betting the United States might not sustain a prolonged war with Iran, which helped push prices lower despite the heightened risk.

Impact on Gulf Oil Supply

The renewed hostilities revived a geopolitical risk premium and revived concerns over the nascent recovery of Gulf oil exports. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had been gradually improving after the peace deal, but analysts now fear further attacks could stall the rebound. Shipping tracker Kpler warned that the latest attacks, U.S. retaliation, and a decline in forward tanker positioning have weakened confidence in the reopening of the waterway.

Trump also hinted that the United States might re‑impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports and coastlines that had been lifted under the interim agreement. A day earlier, Washington had revoked a general license that permitted the production and sale of Iranian oil. TankerTrackers.com reported that, anticipating a possible blockade, Tehran shipped at least 10 million barrels of crude oil and fuel oil overnight.

Regulatory Action on Futures Trading

Separately, CME Group’s attempt to introduce a round‑the‑clock oil futures contract was halted by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The exchange tried to self‑certify the contract on Wednesday while the CFTC’s public comment period on continuous‑trading extensions was still open. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that the agency is examining whether 24/7 trading of futures contracts aligns with its statutory Core Principles and emphasized that a “one‑size‑fits‑all” approach would be inappropriate. He called CME’s unilateral move “wholly inappropriate” and urged exchanges to work with agency staff to resolve potential legal issues before seeking to list novel contracts.

Conclusion

The combination of renewed U.S.–Iran military exchanges, President Trump’s ambiguous diplomatic signals, and the CFTC’s block on 24/7 oil futures contributed to a 2‑3% pull‑back in global oil benchmarks, while also casting doubt on the pace of Gulf supply recovery.