Market Reaction
On 9 July 2026, at 21:47 ET (01:47 GMT), crude oil prices extended their upward momentum following fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian targets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures increased by 1.12% to $74.34 a barrel, while Brent crude futures rose by the same 1.12% to $78.89 a barrel.
Recent Geopolitical Escalation
The price gains came after President Donald Trump announced that the U.S.–Iran cease‑fire was effectively over, ordered new strikes on Iranian facilities, and warned of further military action. In response, Tehran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments.
Shipping Incidents Near Hormuz
Over the past two days, a Qatari LNG tanker, a Saudi crude tanker, and at least one additional commercial vessel were struck in separate incidents near the Strait of Hormuz. Another tanker reported being hit by an unidentified projectile off Oman, resulting in a fire but no casualties. These attacks prompted several oil and gas tankers to delay or reverse planned transits as operators reassessed security risks.
Official Threat Assessments
The U.S.–led Joint Maritime Information Center elevated the threat level for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to “severe.” The International Maritime Organization (IMO) simultaneously urged vessels to exercise extreme caution when transiting the route.
Impact on Gulf Oil Export Recovery
Tanker traffic through Hormuz had been gradually improving after a cease‑fire the previous month, but the renewed hostilities have revived doubts that the recovery can continue. Traders now fear that further attacks could stall the rebound and again threaten crude flows from the Persian Gulf.
Analyst Commentary
ANZ highlighted that the latest developments have revived concerns that a collapse of the interim U.S.–Iran agreement could again disrupt Persian Gulf oil supplies. The bank noted that shipping through the Strait had been recovering before this week’s attacks, but the improvement is now at risk as Iran seeks to reassert control over the waterway.
ANZ also pointed to growing tightness in refined fuel markets after Russia extended its diesel export restrictions through July. U.S. government data showed a sizeable draw in distillate and gasoline inventories alongside record fuel exports. Although commercial crude stockpiles rose last week, the release of additional barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and tightening fuel inventories underscored continued strength in downstream demand.
Outlook
Markets are closely monitoring further developments in the U.S.–Iran conflict, the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and any signs of additional disruptions to Middle‑East crude exports.