Overview

Mediators, led by Oman, are reported to be in the final stages of negotiations with Iran concerning the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Parliament National Security Commission spokesman Hassan Ghashghavi indicated that the Strait remains a key issue and that Iran could return to Muscat for further talks. The discussions aim to revive the June memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Iran and the United States.

Iranian Positions

  • Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Foreign Minister, posted on Telegram that talks with Oman are in their final stages and focus on a transit route that is “neither a northern nor a southern route.”
  • Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, stressed that the Oman talks are separate from any closure of the Strait and linked the closure to what he described as the United States’ violation of its commitments.
  • Masoud Pezeshkian, identified as Iran’s President in the report, stated that the June MoU with the United States will serve as the cornerstone of Iran’s future foreign policy, underscoring Tehran’s commitment to the agreement.
  • Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister, discussed regional de‑escalation efforts with his Iranian counterpart during the same period.

U.S. and Israeli Developments

  • Donald Trump, President of the United States, announced on Saturday the cancellation of a planned U.S. attack on Iran after Middle Eastern countries asked Washington to hold off, citing an emerging framework for a potential deal.
  • Trump wrote on Truth Social that the proposed agreement would include the immediate and complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to what he described as Iran’s nuclear threat. He added that he agreed to cancel the attack “subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.”
  • Trump also claimed that Israel had joined the commitment, while warning that U.S. forces remained “locked and loaded” should negotiations fail.
  • Channel 12 reported that Israel was left uninformed for hours about an expected joint attack, with a senior U.S. official describing the situation as “being left in the fog.”
  • Iran’s acting Defence Minister Majid Ebn‑e‑Reza characterised Trump’s announcement as part of “psychological operations and a war of calculations.”
  • Reports indicated that Trump had ordered fresh strikes that could begin the following weekend, targeting Iranian energy infrastructure such as refineries and power plants.

Iranian Military and Diplomatic Stance

  • Iran’s Fars News Agency reiterated that Tehran had not agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and that its policy on the corridor remained unchanged, even as ships continued to queue north of the Strait and Iranian armed forces maintained passage restrictions.
  • Sources quoted by Fars described reports of an agreement to reopen the Strait as false.
  • An Iranian military source warned that the Strait would remain closed “as long as the United States continues its hostile actions and acts of aggression.”
  • Foreign Minister Araghchi conveyed Iran’s warning of a decisive response to any new U.S. attacks during calls with officials from Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia.
  • Nournews, affiliated with Iran’s top security body, warned that attacks on Iranian energy facilities could trigger retaliatory strikes on oil fields in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and on gas facilities in Qatar and Israel.
  • Kuwait reported that its air defences destroyed Iranian drones targeting vital facilities; falling debris caused property damage but no casualties.

Maritime Incidents

  • Two incidents were reported off Oman on Saturday: a tanker suffered engine‑room damage after being struck by an unidentified projectile, and another vessel reported a nearby explosion.

Oil Market Impact

  • Brent crude futures rose 24 % in July amid the heightened geopolitical tension that began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February.
  • Most commercial shipping has avoided the Strait of Hormuz, a major conduit for global oil and liquefied natural gas exports, reflecting ongoing market sensitivity.

Outlook

Iran’s rejection of President Trump’s claims, combined with continued mediator‑led discussions, leaves the future status of the Strait of Hormuz uncertain and the regional security environment volatile.