Market Futures

U.S. equity futures pointed higher on Monday as investors absorbed signs of a tentative de‑escalation in the Middle East and prepared for a busy week of corporate earnings and economic data. By 02:00 ET (06:00 GMT) the Dow futures contract had risen 277 points, or 0.5%, the S&P 500 futures were up 44 points (0.6%), and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 239 points (0.8%). The prior session’s modest gains were driven by a rebound in technology stocks, with Amazon posting its largest quarterly revenue surge in more than four years and Microsoft delivering solid quarterly returns, which helped offset weaker headlines from Apple and Meta Platforms. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index edged up 0.07% but remained over 20% below its record high set on June 22.

Iran Conflict Whiplash

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on social media that the planned bombardment of Iran had been called off, citing requests from Iran and other regional partners and indicating that the perimeters of an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz had been secured. Saudi Arabia’s de‑facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, was reported to have urged Trump to prioritize dialogue to avoid an expanded war. Analysts at Vital Knowledge noted that a cease‑fire framework signed in June lasted only weeks before collapsing after Iranian strikes on commercial vessels in the strait.

Brent Crude Prices

Brent crude futures fell 5.1% to $83.44 per barrel. The price decline was reinforced by an OPEC+ decision to modestly increase output by roughly 188,000 barrels per day, fully unwinding a 1.65 million‑bpd production cut implemented in 2023. The benchmark had spiked 24% the previous month following the breakdown of an earlier U.S.–Iran cease‑fire, and analysts cited by Reuters continue to forecast further upside later in the year. President Trump has argued that higher oil prices are a necessary cost of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, but domestic backlash over inflation‑driven energy price rises is intensifying as the U.S. mid‑term elections approach.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Outlook

The Institute for Supply Management’s July manufacturing PMI is expected at 54.0, up from 53.3 in June. A reading above the 50‑point neutral threshold signals expansion in a sector that accounts for just over 9% of U.S. GDP. June’s slower pace was attributed to a reduction in order‑front‑loading as firms adjusted to potential supply‑chain disruptions linked to the Iran conflict. Nonetheless, the manufacturing sector has expanded for six consecutive months, buoyed in part by a boom in AI‑related infrastructure spending that has helped mitigate the geopolitical shock.

Palantir Earnings Preview

Data‑analytics firm Palantir is slated to report its second‑quarter results on Monday. The company recorded record quarterly sales of $1.63 billion for the first three months of the year, representing an 85% increase year‑over‑year, driven by strong demand from U.S. military contracts and its Maven AI battlefield‑analysis platform. Palantir projected fiscal‑2026 revenue in the range of $7.65 billion to $7.66 billion. Executives warned that the firm could face competition from lower‑cost AI start‑ups such as Anthropic, criticizing what they termed “AI slop” from those rivals during an analyst call earlier in the year. Palantir’s shares have fallen more than 26% year‑to‑date.