RBC: Oil Majors Benefit from LNG Spread

Global LNG exports fell 4% QoQ to 115 Mt in Q1 2026, driven by Qatar’s March shutdown cutting its output 26% sequentially.
RBC expects TotalEnergies, Shell and BP, with LNG positions, to gain margins as European TTF rises ~50% while Henry Hub stays flat.
Shell projected top of Q1 LNG guidance (7.4‑8 Mt), above last quarter’s 7.8 Mt, helped by LNG Canada ramp‑up, offset by Pearl GTL outage.
Analysts say benefit of widening spreads likely to flow into earnings from Q2 2026 onward, with oil trading, not LNG, driving near‑term activity.