RBC: US LNG Majors Benefit from Spreads

Global LNG exports fell 4% QoQ to 115 Mt in Q1 2026, driven by Qatar’s March shutdown cutting its output 26% sequentially.
RBC expects oil majors with U.S. LNG positions—TotalEnergies, Shell, BP—to profit from ~50% rise in European TTF gas versus flat Henry Hub.
Shell’s Q1 LNG output likely exceeds its 7.4‑8 Mt guidance, reaching above 7.8 Mt, helped by LNG Canada ramp‑up, offset by Pearl GTL outage.
RBC warns the main benefit will materialize in Q2 2026 earnings, as oil trading, not LNG, drives market activity this quarter.