Market Overview

The FTSE 100 edged higher by 0.1% on Tuesday, closing at a modest gain after earlier volatility, while Germany’s DAX fell 1.3% and France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.5%. The pound weakened 0.1% against the U.S. dollar, trading at $1.3372, a marginal 0.01% decline.

Energy and Oil Prices

Shell plc lifted its second‑quarter integrated gas‑production guidance, although it warned that output will be sharply lower than in the first quarter because the Pearl GTL plant in Qatar remains shut following the Ras Laffan attack. The upbeat update propelled Shell shares up 3.26% and lifted broader energy stocks. Brent crude futures rose 0.85% to $72.60 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate increased 0.70% to $69.03 a barrel.

Geopolitical Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz

Missile attacks by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on commercial vessels revived concerns over the strategic waterway that handles roughly one‑fifth of global oil and gas trade. A Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker, Al Rekayyat, caught fire after being struck on its port side, and the Saudi‑flagged supertanker Wedyan sustained damage off Oman’s coast. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that peace‑deal negotiations would not resume if U.S. threats continue, referencing a mid‑June memorandum of understanding that obliges both sides to refrain from threatening force. Tehran has paused talks during the funeral of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

U.S. Political Developments

U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking at the White House, asserted that the United States would win the conflict “one way or the other” and warned that Washington could destroy Iran’s power‑generating plants. He travelled to Ankara for a summit with alliance leaders, where the agenda includes converting a pledge to raise defence spending from 2 % to 3.5 % of GDP by 2035 into concrete procurement contracts, alongside a defence‑industry fair. Trump is also scheduled to hold bilateral meetings with the presidents of Ukraine and Syria.

UK Housing Market

The Lloyds House Price Index reported a 0.2% month‑on‑month increase in June, taking the average UK property price to £299,330 from £298,812 in May. Annual growth edged up to 0.6% from 0.5%. Regional data showed Northern Ireland posting a 7.4% year‑on‑year rise, while London recorded a 1.1% decline to £534,831. Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Lloyds, noted that mortgage rates have eased from recent highs, offering some encouragement to prospective buyers, but added that the price outlook depends on inflation easing and household confidence improving.

Corporate Updates

  • HSBC Holdings plc announced it will scale back riskier private‑credit lending and concentrate on lower‑risk funds.
  • Victrex plc delivered stronger‑than‑expected third‑quarter revenue growth, reaffirmed its full‑year profit outlook, and indicated that its profit‑improvement programme is beginning to generate cost savings.
  • NCC Group plc disclosed plans to return £185 million to shareholders through a tender offer and share buyback following the sale of its Escode business.
  • Capita plc said it is working with the UK government to resolve operational issues in its Civil Service Pension Scheme contract and expects to provide a further update later in the week.

Commodity and Currency Movements

Gold futures rose 0.26% to $4,178.44 an ounce, while spot gold edged up 0.04% to $4,166.54. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.47% against gold. Brent crude and WTI gains were mirrored by a 2.97% rise in crude oil futures (LCO) and a 2.74% increase in crude oil (CL) contracts. Sterling’s slight depreciation was noted alongside modest movements in European indices (FCHI –0.51%, DE40 –1.27%).