Overview
Elon Musk took to X to caution short sellers as SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) approaches its first earnings report as a public company, scheduled for the evening of August 4, 2026, after the closing bell. Musk’s message, "I try to warn them, but they just double down …," echoes his historic battles with short sellers during Tesla’s early years.
Short Interest Metrics
Data from S3 Partners shows that short interest now represents roughly 34% of SpaceX’s float, a level considered extreme given that anything above 10% is typically high. Shares on loan have reached 95% of the available supply, indicating that the market has virtually exhausted borrowable shares. Consequently, borrowing costs have surged, with short sellers paying a massive premium to maintain their positions. This confluence of high short interest, near‑full utilization of loanable shares, and soaring borrowing costs creates a technical environment highly susceptible to a short squeeze should positive earnings news emerge.
Company Financials
SpaceX has generated an estimated $19 billion in revenue over the trailing twelve months. Analysts note that the company’s market capitalization is approximately $1.6 trillion, a valuation that leaves little margin for error in the eyes of bearish investors. Ongoing massive investments in Starship development and launch infrastructure are cited as factors that could pressure short‑term profitability.
Upcoming Earnings and Lock‑up
The earnings release tonight will be the first public quarterly results for SpaceX. Lock‑up restrictions are expected to begin expiring shortly after the earnings announcement, potentially releasing a wave of insider shares into the market for the first time. This anticipated increase in free float adds another layer of uncertainty for short sellers who have been betting on a disappointing earnings outcome.
Market Implications
If SpaceX reports favorable results, the combination of 95% share loan utilization and elevated borrowing costs could trigger a rapid scramble among short sellers to cover positions, potentially propelling the stock sharply higher. Conversely, a disappointing report would reinforce the bearish thesis that has driven short sellers to amass such a concentrated position. The market is therefore bracing for heightened volatility surrounding the earnings release.