Market Overview
By 07:03 ET (11:03 GMT) the S&P/TSX 60 index futures were up 4 points, equivalent to a 0.2% gain, after the previous trading day the TSX composite had fallen 0.8% to close at 35,125.11 and had briefly touched a fresh record high during that session.
U.S. Futures
U.S. equity futures also moved higher: Dow futures rose 117 points (0.2%), S&P 500 futures added 50 points (0.7%), and Nasdaq‑100 futures jumped 412 points (1.4%) by 07:51 ET.
Federal Reserve Outlook
The rally occurred despite a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve, which left policy rates unchanged but released a dot‑plot indicating that several officials now expect at least one rate hike in 2026, a shift from the March projections that showed no hikes. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s inaugural meeting featured a shortened statement focused solely on curbing inflation, omitting any reference to the dual‑mandate goal of maximum employment and signalling a move toward less explicit market guidance, as noted by analysts at Vital Knowledge.
U.S.–Iran Peace Accord
The United States and Iran signed an interim peace memorandum at a dinner in Versailles, with President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian both signing. The agreement aims to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz—a conduit for roughly one‑fifth of global oil and LNG shipments—and launch nuclear negotiations later in the week. Details of the memorandum have not been released; however, the United States indicated it would waive certain sanctions on Iran, and the strait would be reopened without tolls for two months. The formal signing ceremony originally scheduled for Switzerland remains uncertain.
Commodity Impact
Following the accord, Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell from earlier conflict‑driven peaks, easing fears of an energy‑driven inflation surge that could compel central banks to tighten further. Gold prices advanced, buoyed by reduced concerns over a prolonged oil‑supply shock, although the rise was moderated by a stronger U.S. dollar that made dollar‑denominated gold more expensive for foreign buyers.
Summary of Market Drivers
The combined effect of the US‑Iran peace hopes, higher gold prices, and a more dovish‑than‑expected Fed stance helped lift Canadian equity futures, offsetting earlier declines and providing a modest positive opening for the TSX market.