Market Overview
By 07:18 ET (11:18 GMT) the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract was up 6 points, or 0.3%, indicating a modest rise in Canada’s main equity benchmark. The broader S&P/TSX composite index had closed the previous session at a record 35,275.64, up 0.97%, driven largely by gains in metal‑mining stocks.
U.S. Futures and Equity Performance
At 07:29 ET (11:29 GMT) U.S. market futures also edged higher: Dow futures gained 49 points (0.1%), S&P 500 futures added 6 points (0.1%) and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 91 points (0.3%). In the prior trading day the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 469 points, or 0.9%; the S&P 500 rose 123 points, or 1.7%; and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 795 points, or 3.1%, after the announcement of a preliminary peace framework between the United States and Iran.
Geopolitical Context and Oil Market
President Donald Trump indicated that the Strait of Hormuz would be fully reopened by Friday, ahead of a signing ceremony in Switzerland between Washington and Tehran. He noted the strait was already “partially opened” and expected ships to be moving freely by Friday, although a Wall Street Journal report cited senior U.S. officials saying normal shipping could take up to two weeks. The text of the framework agreement was slated for release on Friday, possibly within two days, and would extend the existing cease‑fire by 60 days while lifting the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance confirmed he would attend the signing and emphasized that many details still needed clarification.
Commodity Prices
Brent crude futures fell 2.7% to $80.94 a barrel, reaching three‑month lows after the peace news, reflecting expectations of resumed oil flows through the Hormuz corridor. Spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,338.64 per ounce and gold futures increased 0.2% to $4,358.70 per ounce, continuing a more than 2% gain recorded on Monday when the preliminary agreement was announced.
Currency and Inflation Outlook
The U.S. dollar index slipped modestly as the easing of oil‑price pressures reduced inflation concerns. ING analysts noted that despite the oil sell‑off, the dollar’s fundamentals remained strong due to solid U.S. economic data and the prospect of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Central Bank Activity
Attention shifted to the Federal Reserve, which was set to begin a two‑day policy meeting later in the day. Market consensus expected the Fed to keep the policy rate unchanged on Wednesday, with focus on post‑decision commentary from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, especially given inflationary pressure from Iran‑linked gasoline price spikes.
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday and signaled continued tightening while planning to scale back monthly bond purchases in upcoming quarters. The Reserve Bank of Australia announced it would leave its cash rate unchanged but warned that further hikes could be considered if headline and underlying inflation remained elevated.
Individual Stock Highlight
SpaceX, the reusable‑rocket company founded by Elon Musk, extended its gains in after‑hours trading, surging 19% on its second day of public trading. The company’s market capitalization was noted as comparable to major technology giants such as Alphabet, Apple and Nvidia.
Analyst Commentary
Deutsche Bank analysts observed that markets had clearly stabilized after the surge of optimism surrounding the deal, noting the modest but positive moves across equity and commodity markets.