Market Overview

By 12:12 ET (16:12 GMT) the S&P/TSX 60 index was up 11 points, or 0.6%, and the broader S&P/TSX composite index rose 218 points, also 0.6%, as investors positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two‑day policy meeting. The composite had touched a record high in the previous session, buoyed by gains in financial and metal‑mining stocks and a decline in oil prices that tempered inflation concerns.

Federal Reserve Decision

The Fed is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged in the 3.5%‑3.75% range, marking the first decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, an appointee of President Donald Trump. Warsh is perceived to be caught between White House pressure for aggressive cuts and emerging energy‑driven inflationary signals that could justify higher borrowing costs. Former Chair Jerome Powell remains a Fed governor, having resisted Trump’s earlier demands for cuts. Market participants anticipate the Fed’s new quarterly economic projections, with BofA Securities forecasting higher inflation, lower unemployment, and no rate cuts in 2026, though a few policymakers may project hikes.

U.S.–Iran Interim Framework

Media reports describe a 14‑point interim accord that includes a permanent ceasefire (including in Lebanon), the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The draft also sets the stage for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program after a formal signing ceremony. Financial relief provisions feature immediate waivers for Iranian oil and petrochemical exports, unfreezing of Iranian assets, and a roughly $300 billion regional reconstruction plan. Tehran would commit to not pursuing a nuclear weapon and to neutralising its nuclear material, with further financial incentives tied to compliance on enriched‑uranium stockpiles.

Commodity and Currency Movements

Brent crude futures rose 0.8% to $79.54 a barrel by 08:08 ET, stabilising after a multi‑day decline as the Strait of Hormuz reopened. The price fell below $80 for the first time since March but remained above pre‑war levels. Spot gold increased 0.7% to $4,362.04 per ounce by 12:15 ET, with gold futures up 0.7% at $4,382.80 per ounce, supported by the dip in crude and a weakening U.S. dollar that makes bullion cheaper for foreign buyers.

Equity Highlights

U.S. equities were largely flat, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.4% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just above the flatline by 12:13 ET. Analysts at Vital Knowledge noted a “no news is good news” tone, suggesting the Iran MOU‑driven rally could persist for a few weeks.

SpaceX’s tokenised stock surged more than 3% in pre‑market trading, closing the day up 4.83% at $201.80, implying a market capitalisation of about $2.65 trillion—approximately $8 billion above Amazon’s valuation. The company’s IPO on June 12 was priced at $135 per share, raising $75 billion, the largest public offering in history, and the stock is now roughly 50% above its IPO price after just four trading sessions.

Chipmakers Intel and Broadcom also posted gains before the market open, indicating a recovery in semiconductor stocks after a sector tracker recorded its second‑worst day of the year in the prior session.

Summary of Key Figures

  • TSX 60: +11 points (0.6%)
  • TSX Composite: +218 points (0.6%)
  • Fed rate range: 3.5%‑3.75% (no change expected)
  • Brent crude: $79.54/barrel (+0.8%)
  • Spot gold: $4,362.04/oz (+0.7%)
  • SpaceX share price: $201.80 (+4.83%)
  • SpaceX market cap: $2.65 trillion
  • US‑Iran reconstruction plan: $300 billion