TSX Index Movement

By 12:20 ET the S&P/TSX 60 index was up four points, or 0.2%, to roughly 35,216 points, while the broader S&P/TSX composite held steady after slipping 0.18% to 35,212.32 points on Monday. The modest gain came as metal‑mining shares fell in line with a slide in gold prices.

Oil Market Update

Brent crude futures rose 3% to $74.15 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate advanced 2.8% to $70.46 a barrel at 12:21 ET. The rally followed reports that Iran’s military fired at least two missiles at commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, ending a week‑long pause in attacks under a U.S.–Iran understanding. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations agency also reported a tanker near the Omani coast hit by an unidentified projectile, igniting a fire; the vessel was reportedly carrying natural gas from Qatar. Oil prices had retreated toward pre‑conflict levels after the June interim cease‑fire, having peaked above $110 a barrel in February when the Iran‑Ukraine conflict escalated.

Gold Market Update

Spot gold slipped 0.5% to $4,144.34 an ounce and gold futures fell 0.3% to $4,155.66 an ounce at 12:22 ET. The decline was driven by a firmer US dollar, itself buoyed by a two‑week‑high rise in benchmark 10‑year Treasury yields. ING analysts noted that foreign‑exchange volatility is likely to stay capped ahead of the Federal Reserve’s June‑meeting minutes, given today’s thin US data calendar.

US Market and Technology Highlights

US stock futures were lower by 12:23 ET, with the Dow down 0.4%, the S&P 500 down 0.3% and the Nasdaq down 0.8%. Earlier in the session, technology stocks had rallied, led by chipmakers Advanced Micro Devices and Western Digital, while Broadcom rose after announcing a partnership with Apple to develop custom iPhone chips. The Philadelphia semiconductor index recovered after a prior‑week decline, reflecting continued demand for high‑end memory and data‑center chips that power the AI boom.

Samsung Earnings Note

Samsung Electronics disclosed preliminary quarterly operating profit of 89.4 trillion won (≈$58 billion) for the quarter ended June, nearly 20‑times its 4.7 trillion‑won profit a year earlier and exceeding the combined earnings of 2024 and 2025. Despite the earnings surge, Samsung’s shares fell more than 6% in Seoul trading, underscoring heightened investor expectations for chip makers amid the AI surge.

Federal Reserve Outlook

The Fed left its policy rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75% in June, but several officials hinted at a possible rate hike later in the year. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed would not provide forward guidance and noted that energy‑driven inflation risks have eased. The CME FedWatch Tool showed a 56% probability of a rate increase as early as September, down from 60% before softer employment data were released.

Geopolitical Context

President Donald Trump is scheduled to travel to Turkey for a NATO summit, where he is expected to discuss US‑Iran relations. Trump has suggested the US could either secure a long‑term peace deal with Iran or “finish the job,” indicating that military options remain on the table as Iran adopts a defiant stance following the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Upcoming Corporate Earnings and Market Events

The corporate earnings calendar this week includes reports from Levi’s Strauss & Co., PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) and Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL). Additionally, SpaceX’s anticipated inclusion in the Nasdaq‑100 on Tuesday is expected to generate elevated trading volumes and further scrutiny of AI‑related stocks.