UAE announced withdrawal from OPEC effective 1 May 2026, citing need for energy planning flexibility.
UAE holds 4.5 Mb/d capacity, 3.6 Mb/d production, aims to reach 5 Mb/d by 2027, representing 25% of OPEC spare capacity.
Oil sector contributes ~25% of UAE GDP; 5.1% oil‑GDP growth in 2025, slight 2026 decline, 6% rebound forecast for 2027.
UBS analysts see muted short‑term price impact but warn of medium‑term downside risks as UAE ramps up output post‑exit.