UAE will withdraw from OPEC effective 1 May 2026, citing need for unrestricted energy planning flexibility.
UAE holds 25% of OPEC’s spare capacity, current capacity 4.5 Mb/d, production 3.6 Mb/d, targeting 5 Mb/d by 2027.
UBS analysts expect muted short‑term price impact but warn of medium‑term downside risks as UAE ramps up output.
Oil sector contributes ~25% of UAE GDP; oil GDP grew 5.1% in 2025, projected to dip 2026 then rebound 6% in 2027.