Overview
UBS analysts estimate the total addressable market (TAM) for the global space economy will reach $1.3 trillion by 2040, representing an annualised growth rate of roughly 7 %.
Current Market Size
According to Satellite Industry Association data, the broader space economy was valued at $429 billion in 2025, a 3 % increase from the previous year. Commercial satellite activities generated $303 billion, accounting for 71 % of the total. Ground equipment was the largest segment at $165.2 billion, followed by satellite services at $105 billion, while consumer applications such as satellite television, radio and broadband contributed $80.2 billion in service revenue.
Launch Cost Outlook
UBS projects that the cost of placing payloads into low‑Earth orbit could fall below $250 per kilogram by 2040, compared with the current $1,500‑$2,000 per kilogram range. Lower launch costs are expected to make satellite communications, Earth observation, space logistics and emerging applications more commercially viable, with most incremental value anticipated from recurring space‑enabled services rather than launch activity itself.
Defence and Government Spending
National security budgets are identified as a major growth driver. The proposed United States Space Force budget for fiscal 2027 is $49.6 billion, a 30 % increase, earmarked for missile warning, satellite protection, secure communications and navigation. Germany has pledged €35 billion to space assets through 2030, and NATO members plan to raise broader defence and security expenditures through 2035.
Longer‑Term Opportunities and Risks
UBS notes potential future opportunities in private orbital stations, space‑based manufacturing, lunar infrastructure and orbital data centres, though many remain technically unproven and will require substantial external funding. Identified investment risks include launch failures, project delays, inconsistent cash flow, orbital congestion and regulatory uncertainty. Venture investment in space‑technology reached $11.6 billion across 430 deals in 2026 through early July, already matching the total recorded for 2025.