UBS: Oil Shock to Lift Prices 30‑40% Higher

UBS strategists led by Artour Danilov say markets underestimate lasting impact of current oil supply disruption.
Brent crude is trading above $100/barrel, peaked near $120, as Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic.
UBS base case projects oil supply returning to January levels only by year‑end, with real prices 30‑40% higher for six months.
Europe faces heightened exposure as higher energy costs compress incomes and margins, limiting central‑bank policy flexibility, while US Nasdaq‑100 shows resilience.