Overview
Morgan Stanley's analysis of July auto insurance rate filings shows a 0.2% decline across the property‑and‑casualty sector, affecting roughly $61 billion of auto premiums. The firm projects that auto pricing will stay negative through 2026 as insurers focus on new business growth and customer retention amid intense competition.
Company‑Specific Filings
Progressive Corp reported a 1.3% premium‑weighted rate decrease in July, covering about $12.7 billion of auto premiums, and Morgan Stanley expects further negative rate filings from Progressive for the remainder of the year. Allstate Corp posted a 0.9% rate increase in July, impacting approximately $4.6 billion of auto premiums; Morgan Stanley anticipates negative filings from Allstate in 2026 as the company pursues its Transformative Growth initiative and launches Allstate‑branded Affordable, Simple, Connected products. Hartford Financial Services Group recorded a 0.3% rate increase in July, affecting roughly $70 million of auto premiums. With target profitability margins reached for its Personal Insurance segment, Morgan Stanley expects rates to moderate further as Hartford expands its Prevail platform. Travelers Companies registered a 1.1% rate increase in July, influencing $1.2 billion of auto premiums. Morgan Stanley foresees additional moderation in personal auto pricing from Travelers as it deploys capacity to support bundled auto and homeowners business.
Outlook
The overall trend of modest rate reductions, combined with company‑specific expectations of continued negative filings or moderate increases, suggests sustained pricing pressure in the U.S. personal auto insurance market through the next several years.