US Crude Production Outlook
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that U.S. crude oil output will reach 13.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of record production. This represents an increase from 13.7 million bpd in 2025 and is expected to climb further to 14.3 million bpd in 2027.
Price Forecasts
The agency forecasts Brent crude averaging $97 per barrel in 2026, with the price declining to $86 per barrel in 2027 as global inventories are expected to replenish. The widening price gap between Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has helped boost U.S. exports, especially when combined with strong refinery crude runs.
Fuel Price Implications
For 2027, the EIA projects diesel prices at the pump to average $5.03 per gallon, up from a prior forecast of $4.49 per gallon. Gasoline is projected to average $3.73 per gallon, up from $3.56 per gallon.
Inventory and Market Dynamics
Domestic crude inventories were reported at 410 million barrels by the end of October, the lowest level for that time of year in the past 12 years. The low inventories, together with a three‑month price rise through October, were driven by:
- Falling global oil inventories,
- Attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf,
- Limited shipping capacity,
- Higher transportation costs that tightened supply.
The EIA expects oil prices to decline further toward the end of 2027 as most non‑Iran Middle East production returns to pre‑war levels and depleted inventories are replenished. As crude output continues to rise and the Brent‑WTI spread narrows, inventories are anticipated to gradually increase.
Export and Refining Context
The wide Brent‑WTI spread, alongside robust refinery crude runs, has supported higher U.S. export volumes. The combination of rising production and narrowing price differentials is expected to keep export momentum while inventories slowly build.