World Bank projects global energy prices to increase 24% in 2026, the steepest rise since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Baseline assumes Strait of Hormuz shipping normalizes by October, but risks stay skewed higher, potentially pushing Brent to $86‑$115.
Overall commodity prices are forecast to rise 16% in 2025, driven by energy, fertilizer and record‑high metals, raising inflation pressures.
World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill warns the shock will hit poorest nations hardest, raising food costs, inflation and debt burdens.