Citi Downgrades Allegro to Neutral
Citi Securities downgraded Allegro (Warsaw: ALEP) from Buy to Neutral on 1 Oct 2026 after the Polish e‑commerce platform recorded a 63 % year‑to‑date increase in its share price. The downgrade reflects a now‑balanced risk‑reward profile despite a more constructive outlook on the company’s operating performance.
The broker raised its target price to 52 zlotys per share, up from 42 zlotys, while the stock was trading at 49.71 zlotys, down 1.8 % at 03:32 ET, underperforming the broader WIG20 index, which closed the day up 0.59 %.
Following Allegro’s second‑quarter results and an upward revision of its guidance, Citi updated its financial model. Active‑buyer growth forecasts were increased by roughly 1 percentage point on average, and gross merchandise value (GMV) forecasts for 2026‑2028 were lifted by about 4 %.
The revisions translate into net‑profit forecasts that are higher by 8.9 % for 2026, 7.6 % for 2027 and 13.0 % for 2028, placing Citi’s estimates on average 3.5 % above the IBES consensus.
Citi now projects Allegro’s revenue at 13.67 billion zlotys in 2026, rising to 17.98 billion zlotys by 2028. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase from 4.07 billion zlotys to 5.27 billion zlotys over the same period.
The bank notes that Allegro commands roughly 50 % of Poland’s e‑commerce market and that continued expansion of the domestic e‑commerce sector, together with regional growth opportunities, should support future GMV and revenue growth. However, Citi observes that much of these catalysts are already reflected in the share price after the strong performance in 2026.