Barclays expects low‑to‑mid‑single‑digit Q1 sales growth in mainland China but forecasts a 2% decline in the overall luxury consumer cohort.
Burberry and Moncler are singled out for positive Q1 growth, while Dior shows improvement and Gucci remains in double‑digit decline.
Barclays keeps overweight ratings on Richemont, Moncler and Burberry, citing jewellery exposure, China outperformance and Burberry’s turnaround momentum.
The Chinese luxury market is maturing, with growth driven by market‑share gains and foreign tourists contributing up to 10% of mall sales.