Overview

On Holding AG (NYSE: ONON) shares declined 3.6% on Tuesday following a consumer backlash in China against soccer star Kylian Mbappé after his remarks referencing a “Chinese dictator” in a meme featuring Mao Zedong.

Analyst Stance

Stifel analyst Peter McGoldrick maintained a Buy rating and a $41 price target, leaving his Asia‑Pacific revenue and profitability forecasts unchanged.

Revenue Exposure

McGoldrick estimates that China contributed roughly 10% of On’s calendar‑2026 revenue, while the broader Asia‑Pacific region accounted for about 21%. Consequently, a hypothetical 10% drop in Chinese sales would reduce consolidated revenue by approximately 1% before any offsets.

Mbappé Partnership

On appointed Mbappé as a global ambassador on 18 September, positioning him as the centerpiece of its entry into soccer and the development of football footwear and apparel. The company has not yet launched any football‑related products, limiting immediate brand‑association risk.

Immediate Corporate Responses in China

Three Chinese brands—beverage maker Dongpeng, dairy producer Mengniu and cheese producer Milkground—have terminated their sponsorship agreements with Mbappé. Additionally, Western brands Dior and Hublot removed Mbappé‑related content from their official Weibo accounts.

Mbappé’s Apology

Mbappé issued an apology, stating he has “deep respect for the Chinese people” and regretted upsetting anyone with his comments.

Potential Brand Risk

McGoldrick warns that if Chinese consumers and digital platforms begin linking On to the controversy, the company could see reduced marketing effectiveness or be forced to alter its China strategy.

Historical Precedents

Stifel cites prior China boycotts: H&M’s China sales fell 23% YoY in the quarter ended May 2021 after the Xinjiang cotton issue, with its Tmall store offline for roughly 16 months; Adidas reported Greater China revenue declines of 16% and 15% YoY in Q2 and Q3 2021; Lululemon cut its 2026 Mainland China revenue‑growth outlook to high‑single digits from about 20% after a backlash over a Japanese drum at a Great Wall yoga event in June 2026.

Forecast Outlook

Stifel is not incorporating any damage into its current forecasts. The analyst will monitor Chinese social‑media sentiment toward On, any removal or modification of Mbappé‑related marketing, and whether consumer sentiment translates into weaker sales.